課程名稱 |
高等水文分析 Advanced Hydrologic Analysis |
開課學期 |
108-1 |
授課對象 |
工學院 水利工程組 |
授課教師 |
游景雲 |
課號 |
CIE7033 |
課程識別碼 |
521EM2410 |
班次 |
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學分 |
3.0 |
全/半年 |
半年 |
必/選修 |
必修 |
上課時間 |
星期四1,2,3,4(8:10~12:10) |
上課地點 |
土研402 |
備註 |
本課程以英語授課。建議先修科目:水文學、工程統計學。 總人數上限:30人 |
Ceiba 課程網頁 |
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1081CIE7033_ |
課程簡介影片 |
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核心能力關聯 |
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖 |
課程大綱
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課程概述 |
Hydrological systems are both complex and extremely heterogeneous in time and space. Stochastic hydrology is the statistical branch of hydrology that deals with the probabilistic modeling of those hydrological processes which have random components associated with them. Stochastic hydrology is mainly concerned with the assessment of uncertainty in model predictions. The use of probabilistic techniques to characterize hydrologic processes is a key element in the analysis of hydrologic problems. Such analyses are characterized by data collection, analysis and interpretation, simulation and forecasting. This course will introduce stochastic methods used in hydrology. The level of understanding should, upon completion of the course, be sufficient to understand and appreciate the important issues in the current literature on stochastic hydrology where statistical methods are used in prediction and interpretation of hydrologic processes. The course will involve readings from the stochastic hydrology literature and hands on computer analysis and simulation. |
課程目標 |
This course will stochastic approach to hydrology. We start with the basics: descriptive statistics followed by lectures on probability, random variables and random processes. After the basic concepts of the random processes, the lectures will deal with the following topics: regression, probability fitting, time-series analysis, geostatistics, forward stochastic modeling, optimal state prediction and data-assimilation.
Students are expected to understand following topics after this course
1.Introduction
2. Probability theory and random variables
3. Statistics and Statistical Methods
4. Probability Distribution Functions
5. Regression: Linear regression, kernel regression, local regression, splines, neural networks.
6. Time series models of hydrologic processes.
7. Trend identification
8. Spatial Processes and Random Fields.
9. Geostatistics
10. Data Assimilation, Kalman Filter, Ensemble Kalman Filter.
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課程要求 |
待補 |
預期每週課後學習時數 |
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Office Hours |
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指定閱讀 |
1.Maidment, D. R. (1993). Handbook of hydrology (Vol. 9780070, p. 397323). New York: McGraw-Hill.
2.Course Note by Prof. Tim-Hau Lee
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參考書目 |
Bras, R. L., & Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. (1993). Random functions and hydrology.
Courier Corporation.1. Bedient, P.B., Huber, W.C., 2008. Hydrology and
Floodplain Analysis.
Chatfield, C. (2003). The analysis of time series: an introduction. Chapman and
Hall/CRC.
Haan, C. T. (1977). Statistical methods in hydrology. The Iowa State University
Press.
Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time series analysis (Vol. 2, pp. 690-696). Princeton,
NJ: Princeton university press.
Pegram, G. G. S. (2009). Probabilistic Methods and Stochastic Hydrology.
Hydraulic Structure, Equipment and Water Data Acquisition Systems-Volume I,
245.
Salas, J. D. (1980). Applied modeling of hydrologic time series. Water
Resources Publication.
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評量方式 (僅供參考) |
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週次 |
日期 |
單元主題 |
第1週 |
9/12 |
Introduction & Probability theory, Statistical Analysis of Hydrological Data |
第2週 |
9/19 |
T-test
Signed Rank Test
Pair t-test
Rank Sum Test
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第3週 |
9/26 |
ANOVA
Kruskal Wallis Test
Gaussian Random Variables: Multivariate, Moment Factoring, Normality test, K-S test, Jarque Bera Normality Test, Normalization, Transformation of Random Variables
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第4週 |
10/03 |
Correlation
Regression |
第6週 |
10/17 |
Multivariate Linear regression
PCA |
第7週 |
10/24 |
Reliability Engineering
Time Series |
第8週 |
10/31 |
Time Series |
第10週 |
11/14 |
Parameter estimation of ARMA |
第13週 |
12/05 |
Kriging |
第14週 |
12/12 |
Simple Kriging |
第15週 |
12/19 |
Universal Kriging
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第16週 |
12/26 |
Kalman Filter
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