課程資訊
課程名稱
高等水文分析
Advanced Hydrologic Analysis 
開課學期
108-1 
授課對象
工學院  水利工程組  
授課教師
游景雲 
課號
CIE7033 
課程識別碼
521EM2410 
班次
 
學分
3.0 
全/半年
半年 
必/選修
必修 
上課時間
星期四1,2,3,4(8:10~12:10) 
上課地點
土研402 
備註
本課程以英語授課。建議先修科目:水文學、工程統計學。
總人數上限:30人 
Ceiba 課程網頁
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1081CIE7033_ 
課程簡介影片
 
核心能力關聯
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖
課程大綱
為確保您我的權利,請尊重智慧財產權及不得非法影印
課程概述

Hydrological systems are both complex and extremely heterogeneous in time and space. Stochastic hydrology is the statistical branch of hydrology that deals with the probabilistic modeling of those hydrological processes which have random components associated with them. Stochastic hydrology is mainly concerned with the assessment of uncertainty in model predictions. The use of probabilistic techniques to characterize hydrologic processes is a key element in the analysis of hydrologic problems. Such analyses are characterized by data collection, analysis and interpretation, simulation and forecasting. This course will introduce stochastic methods used in hydrology. The level of understanding should, upon completion of the course, be sufficient to understand and appreciate the important issues in the current literature on stochastic hydrology where statistical methods are used in prediction and interpretation of hydrologic processes. The course will involve readings from the stochastic hydrology literature and hands on computer analysis and simulation.  

課程目標
This course will stochastic approach to hydrology. We start with the basics: descriptive statistics followed by lectures on probability, random variables and random processes. After the basic concepts of the random processes, the lectures will deal with the following topics: regression, probability fitting, time-series analysis, geostatistics, forward stochastic modeling, optimal state prediction and data-assimilation.
Students are expected to understand following topics after this course

1.Introduction
2. Probability theory and random variables
3. Statistics and Statistical Methods
4. Probability Distribution Functions
5. Regression: Linear regression, kernel regression, local regression, splines, neural networks.
6. Time series models of hydrologic processes.
7. Trend identification
8. Spatial Processes and Random Fields.
9. Geostatistics
10. Data Assimilation, Kalman Filter, Ensemble Kalman Filter.
 
課程要求
待補 
預期每週課後學習時數
 
Office Hours
 
指定閱讀
1.Maidment, D. R. (1993). Handbook of hydrology (Vol. 9780070, p. 397323). New York: McGraw-Hill.
2.Course Note by Prof. Tim-Hau Lee

 
參考書目
Bras, R. L., & Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. (1993). Random functions and hydrology.
Courier Corporation.1. Bedient, P.B., Huber, W.C., 2008. Hydrology and
Floodplain Analysis.
Chatfield, C. (2003). The analysis of time series: an introduction. Chapman and
Hall/CRC.
Haan, C. T. (1977). Statistical methods in hydrology. The Iowa State University
Press.
Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time series analysis (Vol. 2, pp. 690-696). Princeton,
NJ: Princeton university press.
Pegram, G. G. S. (2009). Probabilistic Methods and Stochastic Hydrology.
Hydraulic Structure, Equipment and Water Data Acquisition Systems-Volume I,
245.
Salas, J. D. (1980). Applied modeling of hydrologic time series. Water
Resources Publication.
 
評量方式
(僅供參考)
   
課程進度
週次
日期
單元主題
第1週
9/12  Introduction & Probability theory, Statistical Analysis of Hydrological Data 
第2週
9/19  T-test
Signed Rank Test
Pair t-test
Rank Sum Test
 
第3週
9/26  ANOVA
Kruskal Wallis Test
Gaussian Random Variables: Multivariate, Moment Factoring, Normality test, K-S test, Jarque Bera Normality Test, Normalization, Transformation of Random Variables
 
第4週
10/03  Correlation
Regression 
第6週
10/17  Multivariate Linear regression
PCA 
第7週
10/24  Reliability Engineering
Time Series 
第8週
10/31  Time Series 
第10週
11/14  Parameter estimation of ARMA 
第13週
12/05  Kriging 
第14週
12/12  Simple Kriging 
第15週
12/19  Universal Kriging
 
第16週
12/26  Kalman Filter